Notice: Launch of the 2nd Inquiry

The APPCCG has launched its 2nd Inquiry ‘Setting greenhouse gas reduction targets: the road to A from B’.

This APPCCG inquiry seeks evidence from all who have in interest in this issue. It will seek to present a clear and precise pathway for a UK CO2 reduction by 2050.   (For more information click here)

In proposed UK domestic legislation, at the European Union level and globally we are witnessing the development of policies to tackle climate change which have at their heart a clearly understandable and logical goal – to achieve a safe and sustainable level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Achieving this goal will depend on finding the best timetable, the right apportionment of responsibilities (the correct balance between developed and developing countries), and overcoming supply and demand barriers. Climate change policies based on achieving this goal will also depend on making timely use of the best scientific evidence available.

In the UK and the EU it has been agreed that a temperature rise of no more than two degrees Celsius is a goal which is commensurate with achieving a safe and sustainable level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Our current understanding of the best evidence of our chances of achieving this is summarised in a table which was presented to the Exeter Climate Change Science Conference in 2005:

“The probability of exceeding 2 degrees C warming above pre-industrial levels in equilibrium for different CO2 equivalence stabilisation levels: upper bound, mean and lower bound are given for the set of eleven analysed climate sensitivity PDFs (see text and cf. figure 28.5 in Schellnhuber et al, Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Cambridge, 2006, p270)

(Meinshausen)

From this table it can thus be seen, e.g. that to have a more or less even chance of achieving the two degrees target, we should aim for a CO2eq. concentration of 450ppm

The inquiry seeks evidence on, but not exclusively:

What is the UK’s share of responsibility?

• How is that to be calculated?
• How does it reflect the latest scientific evidence?
• What is the history of the current widely promoted 60% CO2 reduction target?
• What allowance (if any) should be made for ‘non-linear’ threats, e.g. sink failures, positive feedbacks?
• What allowance (if any) should be made for offsetting UK emissions and how does that affect developing    countries’ CO2 targets?
• What in any case is the importance of having a long term target?

Other questions will naturally arise. Evidence is not sought on technologies, adaptation measures or financial issues. The question is simply put: what is the right CO2 emissions reduction target for the UK (and elsewhere if that is integral to the evidence).

Submitting evidence

Evidence should be submitted by the 27th July 2007, either in electronic (preferred) or written form. It should be sent to:

 Colin Challen MP
 Chair (APPCCG)
 House of Commons
 LONDON
 SW1A 0AA

(envelope to be marked “2nd APPCCG Inquiry”)

e-mail: colinchallenmp@parliament.uk        (Subject: “2nd APPCCG Inquiry”)

Unless requested otherwise, evidence may be published.

The evidence will be assessed and a report published in Autumn. On the basis of evidence submitted the APPCCG may at its discretion, convene witness session(s) to take oral evidence.