Varying visions of a low carbon future
The organisations below have put forward visions that are noteworthy, either because of the source (for example, the three major environmental EU NGOs), the vision itself, or the popularity and effect of the vision. Forum for the Future seems to have put forward the most interesting and inspiring vision, while the consultancy GMJ has done the best job of creating visual images of a low-carbon future. Here is a short summary.
Where are the green groups (NGOs) taking us?
Forum for the Future’s Low Carbon Living 2022 provides one of the most vivid pictures of a low-carbon future available. The project uses short fictional scenes to present detailed, human-scale visions of many different aspects of life – work, travel, nightlife and entertainment, holidays, physical environment, shopping and consumption, food, and education. These visions combine new technologies with lifestyle changes. Forum’s vision of the future is inspiring, unapologetically hopeful, and presents an image of more leisurely lifestyles, a deeper connection with the natural world, and more closely-knit, happier families and communities.
Source: “ Visions of Low-Carbon Living in 2022 ”
New Economics Foundation’s (nef) “new economics” are aimed at optimizing human wellbeing by promoting a just, interdependent, and diverse world. nef’s vision of a low-carbon future, promoted through a variety of publications and public events, is comprehensive and incorporates the organisation’s other policy goals, such as economic diversity, participatory democracy, and social justice. This vision touches briefly on new technologies (mainly cleaner transport and options for working and socializing online), but focuses primarily on lifestyle changes. The nef vision is not as specific as Forum for the Future’s, and depends more heavily on changing people’s desires and behavior instead of just the means they use to achieve their goals. It also describes some downsides of the low-carbon transition (more expensive food and travel, for example), while Forum for the Future takes the position that while some goods will become more expensive, better alternatives will largely crowd them out of the market in time. However, the image of a cleaner, safer, and closer community nef presents is positive and vivid.
Source: “ The Great Transition ”
Greenpeace promotes “Our Climate Vision” prominently on the website and in its publications. This is a hopeful and comprehensive vision, but one that focuses on the prospect of avoiding disaster, and only lightly touches on the positive benefits of a low-carbon future beyond averting climate change (such as an increase in green jobs and improved human health from eating less meat). This is a good roadmap, and includes a lot of revolutionary language and encouragement (for example, “We can easily reduce emissions in this sector by X amount using current technologies,” rather than, “If we do not reduce emissions by X amount, this terrible thing will happen.”). However, it does not create a vivid image of life in a low-carbon future.
Sources: “ Greenpeace Climate Vision ” also, ” Changing lifestyles and consumption patterns ”
Friends of the Earth’s vision focuses on the positive benefits of lifestyle changes: for example, low-carbon transport means a fitter society, and green energy will “transform” Northern countries and create “cosier homes”. According to this plan, creating a green economy means shifts in investment, tougher regulations (at both the national and international levels, as well as around forests and natural resources), reform of the tax system and of government spending to promote green industries and practices, and deliberate interventions to change the price structure for goods and energy. This new green economy will save money, create jobs, and make the economy proof against climate-change-based disruptions. FoE’s vision mainly explores the new green economy and the government’s role in it; it is an encouraging vision, but not a very detailed one. FoE has some interesting examinations of the futures of individual technologies, such as hybrid cars, as well as a story of a couple who went on a long-term cycling tour to illustrate what holidays might look like in a low-carbon world. These sections are intriguing but don’t form a complete picture.
Sources: “ Climate Change Solutions “ and “ Green Economy“
WWF’s vision focuses mainly on government action and investment and on individual lifestyle choices and consumption. The vision is meant to be practical, and WWF helps visitors to its website measure their carbon footprint and offers advice on how to create a lower-carbon lifestyle. WWF’s vision is not a very bright one: it touches on the economic benefits of a low-carbon economy, but the primary focus is on the disastrous effects of failing to curb climate change. This is a detailed vision laying out specific policies and economic measures, but it is not particularly vivid or hopeful. WWF pointedly focuses on governments rather than markets, and specifically says that it is necessary for the private sector “not to stand in the way”.
Sources: “ Changing the way we live ” and ” Climate Solutions 2 (executive summary) “
What are the Thinkers thinking and Advisor’s advising?
William McDonough, widely recognized American designer and architect, puts forward a striking vision for the role of design and architecture – industrial and domestic – in shaping a low-carbon future. While his vision primarily covers one aspect of the low-carbon future, the design of buildings and cities has a huge influence on individual and communal lifestyles, and McDonough’s developments provide a compelling visual image of the future of day-to-day life.
The core idea is that buildings and cities should be like trees, a living part of the environment and one that is adapted to its unique location, rather than an imposed design that isn’t suited to its physical surroundings. Like trees, McDonough’s developments are self-sufficient and renewable, relying on solar energy. The buildings also lessen their impact on the environment around them by having green roofs and using their own waste to produce fuel. McDonough’s past achievements include the offices of Gap Inc. and Ford’s River Rouge plant, which has a 10-acre green roof. Lately, McDonough’s firm has been working with the Chinese government to design green development plans for cities, especially Liuzhou, although not all of these plans have been implemented as intended. McDonough believes that if China’s government can be persuaded to invest in solar for major urban developments, this will foster better and cheaper solar technologies that will benefit the rest of the world.
Sources: “ Growing Green Buildings “, “ From products to cities “, Tower of tomorrow “and “ Biography “
Rocky Mountain Institute’s Amory Lovins provides a comprehensive plan for de-carbonising the economy through energy efficiency, renewable energy, and better design. RMI’s research and projects look at technology, design, and policy (although there is a strong focus on grassroots action; for example, RMI publishes guides to local economic renewal for communities). While much of this research is technically detailed, there is a moving underlying vision that Lovins lays out eloquently: “Imagine a world where we don’t just know more—we also know better; where overspecialization and reductionism have gone from vitally fashionable to unaffordably foolish; where vision across boundaries triumphs, simply because it works better and costs less.
Sources: “ Imagine a World “ and Reinventing Fire “
GMJ Consultancy’s work combines realistic predictions based on current climate science with the consultancy’s expertise in visual modeling of future technologies. The compelling images range from inspiring to horrifying (some are odd combinations of the two, such as a peaceful pond in place of Piccadilly Circus). GMJ launched an online photo exhibit called “London Futures” in 2008 which is now part of the Museum of London’s new permanent modern galleries. Inspired by the exhibit, Wired magazine commissioned a cover from GMJ, depicting London in the present, near future, and distant future. The near future segment looks at possible solutions to energy shortages and climate change issues; the distant future scenario, while it includes such elements as space travel and floating cities, also takes a realistic approach to the continuing effects of climate change (for example, with vertical urban gardens and green roofs to address food shortages).
Source: “ London Futures “
Are the media and entertainment sectors on board?
There has been a recent resurgence in popular science fiction and speculative fiction, which often reflects public interest in, and fears about, the current scientific direction of the world. The recent film Avatar was a particularly interesting phenomenon: it was wildly popular, grossing over $2 billion worldwide. Avatar had a clear environmental message (to the point where there is a tie-in guide for environmental activists), and while the movie didn’t specifically lay out a vision of a low-carbon future on Earth, it did imagine an appealing, environmentally friendly civilisation in contrast to a grim, resource-hungry future version of our own society. Many viewers seem to have become caught up in the green fantasy world it created (a surprising number of fans reported depressed and even suicidal feelings following the film, specifically because the beautiful planet it depicted didn’t resemble our current world). Points to a growing appetite for hopeful, green visions in art and the media.
There are also deliberately climate-conscious artistic initiatives. These include documentaries such as An Inconvenient Truth and The Age of Stupid, as well as projects like Cape Farewell, which sends artists along with climate scientists on expeditions to threatened areas (recently to the Arctic and to the Andes) in order to create artistic responses to the threat of climate change. However, most of these projects focus on frightening images of a world that has failed to control climate change, rather than on hopeful visions of a low-carbon world.
Sources: “ CNN article ‘Audiences Experience Avatar Blues “, “ An Inconvenient Truth “, “ The Age of Stupid “ and “ Cape Farewell “
Anyone out there living the dream?
Masdar City is an emerging 6-km2 city owned by energy company Masdar which aims to become one of the world’s most sustainable urban developments. It is located in Abu Dhabi, and it will eventually house the new International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Low-impact design; solar, geothermal, and waste energy; sustainable consumption of food and water; ultra-efficient public transport; and traditional regional architecture, originally developed for controlling extreme temperatures, are intended to make Masdar City a sustainable and enjoyable place to live.
Sources: “ Masdar City “
Transition Network ‘s Transition Towns and projects in the UK offer a practical demonstration of what day-to-day communal life could look like in a low-carbon, post-peak oil future. The aim is to make local communities more resilient and self-sufficient; measures can include growing food locally, micro-generation, local business ownership, and energy efficiency. Some communities even introduce their own currency. There is a prominent focus on events to train local people in a variety of skills that will make them more self-sufficient, including gardening, sustainable DIY, and practical handicrafts. Events such as the Sunrise: Off Grid festival/conference offer training in everything from building solar panels to bushcraft. The first Transition Town, Totnes, has 39 separate projects running and estimates that its Transition activities have generated over £800,000 for the community.
Sources: “ Transition network “ and “ Transition town wiki “